Turkey Should Avoid Intervention in Syria
Turkey has now pulled off its mask and boldly implements its Syria policy. Aware of Damascus’ government’s weak position vis-à-vis the opposition and the increasingly shrinking sovereignty of governments inside their territory, Turkey maneuvers freely over the Syrian issue, even warning Bashar Assad of intervention.
For Erdogan, the promised reforms of recent months are not adequate. According to the Turkish paper Hurriyet Daily, in a TV interview the Turkish Prime Minister has stated that he does not want to see “another Hama massacre”, referring to the bloody crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood by Bashar’s father Hafez in 1982—a massacre that left at least ten thousand Syrians dead.
In this context, negotiations between Ahmet Davutoglu and his Syrian counterpart become quite significant and can turn into precedents for future regional developments. For instance, if Turkey decides to intervene in Syria on humanitarian grounds, might not the Syrian Kurds use the same excuse to help their brothers in Turkey? What would happen if this domino continues?
Historical events can teach us lessons. If in 1974 the Turkish Army had not incurred into Cyprus on the pretext of defending the rights of Cypriot Turks, the country would not be divided into two parts and the two major ethnicities inhabiting the island, Turks and Greeks, could coexist peacefully, just as many other countries with diverse ethnicities meet their demands through political channels. The 1974 military intervention led to deep political changes inside Turkey itself, brought about a military coup, and hindered the process of political and economic development for at least ten years. It also so infuriated Cyprus that it used its veto power in the EU to reject Turkey’s recurrent bids for membership.
Today, the interests of Israel and US may lie in outsourcing the toppling of the Assad regime to Ankara, in order to remove from the Resistance front one key anti-Israel player and to corner Hamas and Hezbollah. Nevertheless, the long-term interests of Turkey-- which after a decade of steady economic progress is reinforcing its role as a regional peace broker-- do not lie in cooperation with Washington’s expansionist ties. Turkey’s intervention in Syria will embolden other countries to meddle in each other’s domestic affairs; a potential domino effect that will have devastating outcomes for the region.
In the meantime, it seems that public opinion in Turkey does not welcome the idea of interfering with the situation in Syria. It is reported that one cause of the four top Turkish military commanders’ resignation was their objection to Ankara’s involvement in Libyan and Syrian affairs. Turkey can still be the honest broker of Middle East-- an image no one wants to shatter.