Kurdish Referendum Will Spark Security Crisis in Iraq

Despite efforts by regional states and superpowers, as well as intense opposition from the central government of Iraq, Kurdish leaders and in particular Masoud Barzani have not withdrawn from calling for the independence referendum. Two things have made the referendum a certainty. One is Barzani’s determination about and personalization of the Kurdish independence. The other factor is the likely restoration of sovereignty and authority of the central government in Baghdad after the collapse of ISIS. A key question however, is the domestic security aftereffects of the political process, i.e. referendum and the subsequent date that will be set to announce the independence. Here are some points to consider.

One. The referendum and the unilateral announcement of independence will probably cause disputes and even military conflicts between the Kurds and the Iraq central government over disputed regions. These include areas from the farthest west, Sinjar mountain, to the farthest east, i.e. Khanaqin. An important issue that deepens crisis and tension in the area is the demography of these regions, wherein Kurds, Arabs, Turkmens, Shiites, Sunnis, and other ethnic groups live. The identity amalgam could lead to ethnic cleansing.

Two. Oil reserves in Kirkuk is not an issue officials in Baghdad and Erbil could easily close their eyes to. Almost 30 percent of Iraq’s oil reserves are in Kirkuk and Khanaqin, with the country extracting 400,000 bpd when in control of the region. Such huge amounts do not let a smooth independence process.

Three. It should be noted that about a million Kurds reside in the Arab-dwelling regions of Iraq and a large number of Arabs live in the Kurdish regions. More importantly, the Kurds residing in the Arab regions, including Baghdad, are among the richest. They are mainly residents of the upper middle class district of Karrada. Are these Kurds, more than a million in population, ready to leave their opulent lives in the Arab Iraq? In case of independence, will they not face ethnic cleansing? I consider tension and ethnic cleansing between poor Arabs and rich Kurds of Baghdad predictable. This could naturally turn into a civil or even regional war.

Despite the many problems on the way of the Kurdish referendum and independence processes, I figure the Kurdish leader have made their decisions. Since the realization of their age-old wish for independence is in sight, leaders in Erbil are ready to pay its security costs. Their perception is that independence is tied to the life of Masoud Barzani, who wants this to be realized during his lifetime. For the 71-year-old politician whose presidential term is officially overdue, the realization of the Kurdish independence during his lifetime is so vitally significant that he has prepared himself to pay the costs of a serious security crisis.