Russia is Serious about Syria

IRD: Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister said on Thursday that the internal affairs of Syria is not considered an international threat and therefore the there’s no need for the intervention of the UN Security Council. And any foreign intervention could bring instability to the region. Iranian Diplomacy talked to Mahmoud Shouri, an expert on Syrian issues:

IRD: After the G8 meeting, some news was heard on the agreements made between the West and Russia about Syria. What was this news based on?

MS: After the G8 meeting in France, Medvedev announced that Ghadafi has to step down. The public understanding was that this announcement on Libya was a tradeoff for less pressure on Syria by the West. In other words, perhaps Russia expected the West to lessen its pressure on Syria in exchange for this act.

IRD: Nevertheless, on Thursday the Russian foreign minister decried UN Security Council intervention in Syria and emphasized that any intervention could bring instability to the region. How serious is Russia on its stance?

MS: The situation in Syria is very important for Russia because Syria is the only country defined within the interests of Russia in the region. It is very probable that even if the West tries to pass a resolution against Syria, Russia could veto it. The Russians might have not used their veto right in the case of Iran, but they are likely to use it for Syria.

IRD: Is it therefore possible that the West and Russia might face a challenge in the UN Security Council?

MS: The Western approach was to come to an agreement with Russia before proposing any resolution in the Security Council. And if they knew that Russia was going to veto a resolution, they would not propose it in the Security Council. However, it is possible that the West might not take Russia’s position seriously and to show that it is very serious in regards to Syria, it might propose the resolution anyway. In that situation Russia might veto the resolution.

IRD: Lavrov also announced that Moscow actively supports reforms in Syria and has made some progress in this regards as well. He said that this progress should calm down the internal uprisings in Syria, and push the opposition to come to the negotiation table with the government. How influential do you think these pressures could be on Bashar Assad?  

MS: Obviously, Syrian allies pressure it to undertake some reforms. Russia is also after this, and wants Bashar Assad to reduce international pressures on his country by giving some advantages to the opposition. The only thing that the Russians can do is to pressure Syria to undertake more reforms, but unfortunately Syria is in a position in which giving advantages to the opposition might not do it any good.

IRD: Why?

MS: Because imposing serious reforms in this situation means that the Assad government is unstable. In other words, if Bashar Assad gives some points to his opponents he has actually undermined his own position. Therefore, my understanding is that even though the Russians want to open the atmosphere through some reforms, these reforms cannot be very serious and fundamental.