The West Took Iran’s Warnings Seriously

19 September 2012 | 18:10 Code : 1907020 Middle East. General category
An essay by Amir Moosavi, an expert on strategic affairs, for Iranian Diplomacy
The West Took Iran’s Warnings Seriously


The goal of the US’ joint maneuver with 30 countries of the world in the Persian Gulf is to create solutions for combating the planting of landmines and/or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, or more clearly against the threats of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The US is leading this maneuver, in which 30 other countries are participating, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Britain. Britain has dispatched its warships and 6 ships to the Persian Gulf for its participation in this maneuver. 

This maneuver has an important and special message and interpretation. The main interpretation is that the Americans have taken the threats of the Islamic Republic of Iran seriously, meaning the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz. In the beginning, they claimed that Iran could not do so because it did not have the possibilities for its enforcement and that it was just a psychological war. But such a maneuver, and the heavy presence of 30 countries with all their facilities, shows that Iran does have the capability of closing this Strait and that they have taken Iran's threats seriously.

The message of this maneuver can be both regional and international:

1. Regional message: With this maneuver, they intend to declare that they are present alongside the countries of the region and will not leave them alone and that their presence is serious.

2. The other message is for the Islamic Republic of Iran, stating that, if it intends to close the Strait of Hormuz, it should know that the international community is united against Iran's threats.

Of course, all of these measures could just be a psychological war and political and security pressure on the Islamic Republic so that it will either concede or, in the end, back down and behave differently in its future negotiations with the P5+1.

But I believe that the issue of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is only a cover. The important issue is their heavy military presence, particularly that of the US and Western countries, in the region to safeguard the region’s authoritarian regimes. These regimes are deteriorating day by day and the Islamic Awakening is moving towards them; hence, the US and the West are worried that these movements might start in these countries as well. In particular, the conditions in Saudi Arabia, due to its ruling system and its king's illness and differences among members of the royal family and people's protests, are very difficult. Therefore, the US is worried about the situation in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen, and other countries that are faced with movements to change their political situations. 

On this basis, measures are taken by the US and Western countries and their allies in the region to maintain the region’s present ruling regimes. The reason is that they have witnessed serious changes in the conditions of other countries in North Africa and the Middle East in which people have entered the scene to obtain their rights and create a free system. In this region, political participation, women's rights, rights of the media and the press have no basis; therefore, I believe that the concern of the Westerners is these awakening movements. They know that Iran will only enforce its threats when the Zionist Regime or the US attacks. Otherwise, Iran will never initiate a conflict and, as Commander Jafari has emphasized, Iran will not, under any condition, initiate a war. In other words, Iran will only react. Western countries are aware of this issue; hence, if they don't attack, Iran will not close down the Strait of Hormuz. 

This issue of Iran having the capability to enforce its threat could be the reason behind the mobilization of regional and international powers. We must confess that, from the viewpoint of tactics, bravery, and taking difficult measures during different times, Iran has high capacities. Furthermore, considering Iran's geographical situation, Western countries and the US are aware of the details of Iran's capabilities. In other words, due to the absence of advisors and the lack of close relations with Iran and therefore a lack of spy networks, they have not been able to acquire accurate information about the types of weapons, tactics, radars, missiles, mines, explosives, destructive abilities, targeting and ...., Iran has. But, in general, they have reached the conclusion that Iran has the ability to fight against any aggression.

Response to the Arab world’s protests against the US

The planning of this maneuver was announced three months ago. Therefore, it cannot directly be linked to the recent issue of protests in the Arab World against the US. Furthermore, the establishment of this volume of possibilities in the Persian Gulf shows that they have taken the message of the people's protests seriously. The region is in flames; the reactions of the people of the region and the world with regard to the insult to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) especially showed that the Islamic community unites under sensitive circumstances. 

What is important today for Westerners and the US is their interests, both from the aspect of oil interests and strategic and political issues and even physical presence in the region. At the present time, they consider their position in all of these aspects threatened.

On the other hand, they are disappointed with regards to Syria. Considering all of the facilities which they have given to the opposition, they have not yet reached their objectives. Therefore, the conditions for the Westerners are very difficult and they are just trying to show their power and capabilities with regard to these matters. It seems that such an approach is only aimed at creating a psychological war and is not enforceable at the time of threat, for many of the countries who have participated in this maneuver have done so only because of their political relations with the West, but in reality, they have neither the bravery nor the capability for confrontation. Experience has shown that they would retreat at the first moment and they do not believe in these goals; in particular, countries of the region are not willing to risk their existence. 

tags: iran the region strait islamic political iran will maneuver against only islamic republic western therefore, the islamic republic iran's taken message threats of this republic

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