Washington showing green light to Pakistan-Afghanistan tension?

17 January 2023 | 14:47 Code : 2019279 General category
By Javad Massoumi, researcher in geopolitics and international relations.
Washington showing green light to Pakistan-Afghanistan tension?

The United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan after a 20-year occupation has left the country vulnerable to security crises, with regional and extra-regional actors exploiting its complex and divisive space. While the Taliban government has created a stable situation in terms of security with the help of important countries in the region, particularly the Islamic Republic of Iran, there is still a long way to go in establishing Afghanistan's security and eliminating ISIS terrorism in Khorasan. The difficulty of this task has made Afghanistan's security field more complex and fragile due to ethnic groups and their connections with neighboring countries, which may lead to internal and border conflicts in the future.

To stabilize Afghanistan's security, the real participation of all ethnic groups with an effective role in the structure of the Taliban government is crucial. In case of success in maintaining security stability, a suitable space will be created for Afghanistan's participation in the new regional order, especially in the economic sector. The country also has a historical history of transiting the Silk Road and can use the role of road and rail corridors to create power tools. The Islamic Republic of Iran has shown its readiness to help in the realization of these strategies by signing various agreements, including in the field of energy and mining.

The role and influence of Saudi Arabia and the UAE as well as Pakistan in Afghanistan cannot be ignored. The US and its affiliates in the region have been trying to provoke and encourage the Pakistani army to increase tension on the border and possibly attack Afghanistan. The United States intends to reduce the security factor with the policy of creating tension, which may result in the lack of real progress in agreements and contracts in various fields. One of the key drivers of the US in Pakistan to realize the tension and conflict strategy of cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the UAE is the support and establishment of Shahbaz Sharif and the prevention of Imran Khan from participating in the upcoming elections in Pakistan.

The presence of Imran Khan in the electoral arena increases the likelihood of his victory, and if he does not succeed, the occurrence of unrest in Pakistan is expected. The military conflict in the Wakhan Corridor region is complex due to various factors, but the US's strategy of lack of peace and stability and territorialization for their own interests has been proven. A closer examination of the current trends, including talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE with Pakistan, can prevent the second government of the Taliban from a strategic surprise.

In conclusion, Afghanistan needs support from all ethnic groups and neighboring countries to stabilize its security situation. It has the capacity to create power tools by using road and rail corridors and participating in the new regional order, especially in the economic sector. However, the role and influence of regional and extra-regional actors, especially the United States and its affiliates, must be monitored closely to prevent the creation of tension and conflict on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

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