Instability in Afghanistan could affect Iran and Pakistan
Mr Ahmadinejad was scheduled to meet with Afghanistan’s president Hamid Karzai in Kabul.It seems that bilateral ties between two countries and the regional and international issues were top of agenda in their discussion. In fact Afghanistan leaders have tried to finish terrorism activities in Afghanistan and they know clearly that the role of their neighbours is much more important than other elements.
This is not the first Afghanistan’s effort to stop of terrorism in this country. Afghan leader is trying to take help from its neighbours specially Iran and Pakistan.
Hardly Islamabad and Tehran work out a coordinated policy to counter the trend. Though Pakistan is making statements about its intention, but it is far from being implemented on the ground. On the other hand, Iran seems to be oblivious of the consequences and focusing more on West Asia.
Powerful government officials in Tehran are aware that Iran’s porous border with Afghanistan is spawning a multiplicity of problems which in their struggle against the U.S could prove to be exorbitantly costly. Given Iran’s geographical location, Tehran simply cannot wish away hostile neighbours or change them. It has to reconcile with the grim, ground- realities as expeditiously as possible for its national interest but that is easier said than done.
Tehran’s main idea was to penetrate Afghanistan and increase the role of Shia groups there but the Americans, in an effort to block the Iranians in Afghanistan, chummed up with the Taliban, making things difficult for Tehran. Things were aggravated when both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan supported the Taliban to reduce Iran’s role among Muslim countries. The subsequent Iran-Taliban conflict increased and the Taliban killed eight Iranian diplomats in Mazar Sharif.
Downgraded
In such an environment, the security on Iran’s Afghanistan border became downgraded, chiefly because of the increase in opium trade and human smuggling. Tehran realized that the Taliban presented the maximum animus than any other neighbor. The Iran-Taliban violence increased but that did not mean that the Taliban was following the US policy. Islamic fundamentalism skyrocketed and it particularly streaked against the US. These consequences led to Afghanistan being branded as the epicenter of global terrorism. The ‘apocalypse’ of 9/11 led the stung Americans to base their Afghan policy against terrorism. In the US concept, a terrorist was not a person or group but the countries which support it and were regarded by Washington as its enemies. The virtual invasion of Afghanistan by the US changed the situation there but the international mafia and terrorist organizations tried to plunge the rugged, tribal-dominated country in to chaos
Afghanistan is all set to witness a barrage of hostile attacks this summer as Taliban and Al Qaeda remnants are coordinating their plans and procuring weapons from tribal areas as well as Africa to take on the US, NATO and Afghan National Army troops. As things stand now, they have the advantage. The open border between Pakistan and Iran with Afghanistan is getting increasingly porous despite, international pressure to stop all such acts and make Afghanistan stable.
The summer is tough. Of the 32 Afghan Governors, wrote to the federal government, asked more pressure on Pakistan to stop supporting Taliban elements. Even Afghan President Hamid Karzai has accused Pakistan of trying to make Afghanistan a colony. But the undercurrent is Afghanistan plunge into a severe crisis this summer.
Afghan crisis
The Afghanistan crisis continues since the last three decades, it became place an extremist haven with violent tendencies.
There was no powerful central government and this led to the increase of military and social hostility among groups and consequent increase in poverty and cultural contrast between people. This caused a ripe ground for military actions of foreign groups. Foreign military groups came to Afghanistan but it was the Taliban for which its rule became a golden period for various extremists.
The phenomenon of “Bin Laden”, or “Al-Qaeda” was the result of that period. But the world forgot the Afghani situation and it became paradise for terrorist groups. In fact, if 9/11 had not happened, international community would have not paid heed to Afghanistan.
The 9/11 incident symbolized the depth of calamity in Afghanistan. It was terrorism phenomenon that international society created it, whether it liked it or not.
Terrorism appeared as a political, religious and relational network which was tough enough. Although America attacked Afghanistan, its Afghanistan’s situation was influenced by few geopolitical and cultural elements such as supporting Al Qaeda for self-benefit, opium production a source of finance of Al Qaeda and Taliban and Islamic ideologies.
Role on terrorism
The collapse of Taliban brought security and peace for Iran in its eastern borders, But Iran’s policy towards new Afghanistan, became dependant on Afghanistan-US relations. For this, Iran supported some of the Afghan Shia groups that play an important role in the Afghanistan Government. Iran, also is trying to have a close relation with Kabul, to increase its influence. Iran, also participated in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. The stated policy would lead Iran to restraining the US from attacking Iran, using Afghanistan as a mediator and prevent terrorist (Al Qaeda and Taliban) terrorist activity against Iran.
At the same time, the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq presented an opportunity to expand Iran’s impact over Shia groups in Iraq. Therefore, Iran’s Influence in Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan’s Shia groups led America to enter into relationships with some of Iran’s competitors.
Pakistan policy
Pakistan supported AL-Qaeda and the Taliban manifestly before 9/11, but it seems that its decision has changed after occupation of Afghanistan by America.
Pakistan’s policy changed from being a supporter of terrorist activists to that of a cooperator of US against terrorism. But it does not mean that Pakistan’s nature in actuality has changed, In fact the national interest of Pakistan led it to use this opportunity to forge friendlier relations with the US where both sides benefit on the issue. Some of these elements are Pakistan’s strategic situation, Pakistan’s foreign investments and Islamabad’s contacts in Balochistan and Waziristan.
When the U.S and Pakistan decided to cooperate with each other, Iran became a loser. Although Iran and Pakistan historically have a good relationship, It led Pakistan to talk about “foreign factors” in Balochistan violence and Islamabad accused India and Iran for it.
Pakistan believes that Iran is concerned about its border near Balochistan which might be used by America to attack Iran. On the other hand, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia tried to develop an anti-Shia wave by Sunni ideology.
This issue would produce more of terrorism in the region, and eventually, the world. A wise solution to this could be search for peace by the states of the region.