No Decent Plans
Interview with Faramarz Tamanna on Afghanistan’s presidential election and the challenge of Hamed Karzai
What are the chances of presidential election moving to second round?
The debate between Abdullah Abdullah and Dr. Ahmadzai has turned the tide in Abdullah’s favor. Karzai’s abstinence to attend the debates has raised questions among civil and democratic institutions. If no alliance is formed during the upcoming days, chances of the election going to second round are quite much. Abdullah popularity has been on surge in the recent days and Ahmadzai’s national and international campaign has added to his chances.
A few days ago head of Dr. Abdullah’s electoral headquarter had said that possible defeat means tension. Of course the remark was denied later. What was the story?
What he had exactly said was: "we will not be content with Karzai’s victory in the first round". But political opponents blow it out of proportion. As a journalist, Abdusattar Morad had just presented his analysis which was based on the aftermath of presidential elections in Iran and Afghans’ access to weapons.
What is the situation of Karzai’s challengers?
Ahmadzai is hopeful of gaining a high vote. He even rejected karzai’s offer for a senior executive position. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai can easily gain half the vote of Pashtuns. Abdullah Abdullah’s vote base among tadjiks and Pashtuns is stable, so a Pashtun gap between Karzai and ahmadzai supporters benefits him.
Is there a possibility of vote-rigging?
It will be insignificant with the supervision of European and American observers and the independent Afghan election committee. The warm relations between each candidate and the international community and their popularity in Afghanistan minimize the chances of fraud. Meanwhile these candidates have common roots.
How could there be any turmoil if they have common roots?
Abdullah Abdullah supporters believe that they have already won the elections with the reception they see in provinces. But Karzai is hopeful enjoying the support of tribal leaders. A first-round victory brings the idea of election fraud to mind for each candidate and his team.
How is the impact of Iran’s post-election unrest on Afghanistan’s developments in the days before the election?
Afghanistan and Iran’s political and cultural developments are usually comparable and concurrent. Iran is our neighbor and its developments naturally affect Afghanistan. Some may want to imitate post-election uprising in Iran. I think if the election goes to second round, there is less possibility of violence.
How can expatriate Afghans participate in the poll?
Unfortunately, due to the lack of financial resources and impossibility of strict supervision of ballot boxes outside Afghanistan, the independent election committee and international observers have decided to hold the presidential poll only inside Afghanistan. Immigrants mainly living in Pakistan and Afghanistan can not cast their vote. This is the biggest defect of this election.
Is Iran playing a role in the election?
Iran has not had the opportunity after the post-election demonstrations and has remained silent, though it may have a slight tendency towards Abdullah Abdullah because of his Jihadi background and his ties to Persian-speaking ethnicities. But that is not conspicuous. Karzai and Ahmadinejad are also in good terms, as the Afghan president’s prompt letter of congratulation to his Iranian counterpart revealed.
How about religious extremists? How do they view the elections? Is there any candidate who represents their demands?
Fundamentalists fall under three categories. One is the Taliban, who regard the whole political process as illegitimate. Another group is those hardliners which have joined Karzai in power. They seek their own benefit and may change their approach as the situation changes. The third group is not active in politics. All in all, fundamentalists do not have a representative in this round of elections.
What are the criteria Afghans considering in electing a candidate? Their viewpoint and plans or their ethnic roots? Is there a nominee with new promises?
I think security and obliterating power are the most important factors for Afghan citizens. However, Afghanistan is a society moving towards modernity and ethnic roots still count. What I see is that most candidates lack a decent plan. But that is not our problem, since the national development plan has been designed in Tokyo and London conferences. Our problem is with the handling of these strategies. I hope the upcoming changes solve this problem.
The debate between Abdullah Abdullah and Dr. Ahmadzai has turned the tide in Abdullah’s favor. Karzai’s abstinence to attend the debates has raised questions among civil and democratic institutions. If no alliance is formed during the upcoming days, chances of the election going to second round are quite much. Abdullah popularity has been on surge in the recent days and Ahmadzai’s national and international campaign has added to his chances.
A few days ago head of Dr. Abdullah’s electoral headquarter had said that possible defeat means tension. Of course the remark was denied later. What was the story?
What he had exactly said was: "we will not be content with Karzai’s victory in the first round". But political opponents blow it out of proportion. As a journalist, Abdusattar Morad had just presented his analysis which was based on the aftermath of presidential elections in Iran and Afghans’ access to weapons.
What is the situation of Karzai’s challengers?
Ahmadzai is hopeful of gaining a high vote. He even rejected karzai’s offer for a senior executive position. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai can easily gain half the vote of Pashtuns. Abdullah Abdullah’s vote base among tadjiks and Pashtuns is stable, so a Pashtun gap between Karzai and ahmadzai supporters benefits him.
Is there a possibility of vote-rigging?
It will be insignificant with the supervision of European and American observers and the independent Afghan election committee. The warm relations between each candidate and the international community and their popularity in Afghanistan minimize the chances of fraud. Meanwhile these candidates have common roots.
How could there be any turmoil if they have common roots?
Abdullah Abdullah supporters believe that they have already won the elections with the reception they see in provinces. But Karzai is hopeful enjoying the support of tribal leaders. A first-round victory brings the idea of election fraud to mind for each candidate and his team.
How is the impact of Iran’s post-election unrest on Afghanistan’s developments in the days before the election?
Afghanistan and Iran’s political and cultural developments are usually comparable and concurrent. Iran is our neighbor and its developments naturally affect Afghanistan. Some may want to imitate post-election uprising in Iran. I think if the election goes to second round, there is less possibility of violence.
How can expatriate Afghans participate in the poll?
Unfortunately, due to the lack of financial resources and impossibility of strict supervision of ballot boxes outside Afghanistan, the independent election committee and international observers have decided to hold the presidential poll only inside Afghanistan. Immigrants mainly living in Pakistan and Afghanistan can not cast their vote. This is the biggest defect of this election.
Is Iran playing a role in the election?
Iran has not had the opportunity after the post-election demonstrations and has remained silent, though it may have a slight tendency towards Abdullah Abdullah because of his Jihadi background and his ties to Persian-speaking ethnicities. But that is not conspicuous. Karzai and Ahmadinejad are also in good terms, as the Afghan president’s prompt letter of congratulation to his Iranian counterpart revealed.
How about religious extremists? How do they view the elections? Is there any candidate who represents their demands?
Fundamentalists fall under three categories. One is the Taliban, who regard the whole political process as illegitimate. Another group is those hardliners which have joined Karzai in power. They seek their own benefit and may change their approach as the situation changes. The third group is not active in politics. All in all, fundamentalists do not have a representative in this round of elections.
What are the criteria Afghans considering in electing a candidate? Their viewpoint and plans or their ethnic roots? Is there a nominee with new promises?
I think security and obliterating power are the most important factors for Afghan citizens. However, Afghanistan is a society moving towards modernity and ethnic roots still count. What I see is that most candidates lack a decent plan. But that is not our problem, since the national development plan has been designed in Tokyo and London conferences. Our problem is with the handling of these strategies. I hope the upcoming changes solve this problem.