A resource war

It was a three and half hour long flight from Khartoumto DarfurUpon arrival at El-Fasher International airport, one can see anti-aircraft gun pods, mortar points and Heavily-armed military men patrolling the main streets of North Darfurin their pick-up vans. It gives an impression of a conflict-zone as we often hear news about Darfurproblem every now and then. But in reality it was not. These are all defensive postures of the Sudanese military to protect vital installations and civilian assets like airport, fuel depot and population centers.

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Surprise

 

In fact, surprisingly, it appears El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfuris a calm place. People are busy in their daily routine and schools are open as market places. Africans are anyway known as warm people and take their own time to relax. The El-Fasher town strikingly resembles any remote villageof TharRajasthan, along the Indo-Pak border. Roads are dusty but sandy. One can drive anywhere and there is no need for any road network since the soil condition offers a naturally metallic pitch. This reminds about the harsh condition people live in. But they are warm and receptive.

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When we visited the internally displaced people (IDP) camps in the outskirts of El Fasher town, we found little children waving their small hands as a mark of greeting and women giving broad smiles in welcoming foreigners to the landof Furtribes as the colloquial meaning of DarfurOne wonders if everything is normal why there is a crisis. Probably, there is a simmering tension going on for a long time among various groups that sometimes flare up in terms of sudden spurt of violence. Ethnic feuds are very unique in AfricaThe region is yet to overcome its colonial past. Drafur crisis has two sides of a story.

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Now many questions arise about the true picture. On one hand, it is Western media’s obsession with the issue portraying horrors of the Darfurand genocides; on the other hand, the Sudanese Government has been blaming the Western media for launching a vociferous attack against it and accusing it of a larger conspiracy theory to dismember SudanThe Darfurissue and South Sudanproblems provide an ample ground for long- term Western geo-strategic aims and objectives to succeed. Ultimately, that can pave the way for controlling Africas politics and its untapped resources -mainly hydrocarbon and minerals.

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After all, the Darfurcrisis is a resource war.

It is all geopolitics to control Africas rich resources deposited in its vast swathe of ungoverned territories and conflict-prone zones that bear a strong legacy of colonial era of Euro-Christians who had once given

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Africasynonyms like “Dark Continentand “Slave Trade Zone.”

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Sudanis Africas largest country, territory-wise and it figures as the tenth-biggest in size in the world map. Covering approximately 2.5mn square km from Egyptin the north to Ugandain the south, it shares over 11,000 km borders with nine countries. Positioned in the heart of Africait became a natural zone for interactions between Hamitic Arabs and the black Africans. However, the country has a racial mix of about 500 tribes speaking 115 languages from Nubians along the Nileand the nomadic Beja of the east to Nuba from central Sudanand the proud Shelluk, Nuer and Dinka from the south has produced Sudans different ethnic groups and cultural diversities.

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Clash of interest

Thus, conflict and clash of interest among various groups are inevitable. Sudans history is chequered with civil war, famine, coup and radical Islam. The North-South imbalances have also played a crucial role in destabilising SudanLandof BlacksOf late, Sudanhas managed to move away from those difficulties, although it still has a long way to go.

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Then, the latest addition to the scenario is crisis in Darfurthat the Sudanese Government under President Omar Al-Basher is grappling with. The conflict has a multifaceted dimension. Darfurs history has hardly witnessed any stability even under British rule. Since Sudans independence in 1956, various successive governments have tried, though half-hazardly, to overcome the crisis. The focus was North-South conflict. So a colonial leftover, mixed with the present socio-economic-ethnic and political complexities, has clogged the crisis far beyond any easy way out. Adding to the situation is vested interest of some Western nations as well as Sudans “bad neighbours”.

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Sudans geo-strategic position in Africais unique, somewhat similar to Afghanistans importance for south and central Asiaand Polands positioning in EuropeSudanis the largest country in Africaand it is proved in history who can control Sudancan rule most of Africaand control its resources. Since problems in south Sudanis returning to normal after lot of hard work, now Darfuris emerging as another challenge. Darfuris central to Sudans stability. The whole of Darfuris rich with oil, uranium, bauxite, iron, fertile land and livestock.

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Sudans far west, Darfurtouches Libyain the north and borders Chadand Central African Republicin the south. Darfurconsists of three zones, North Darfur-capital El-Fasher, South Darfurs capital Niyala and West Darfur-capital El-Geneina. Darfurs history starts with when Keira sultanate of Jabal Marra region established his tribal kingdom and subsequently the European explorer W G Browne reached Darfurin 1793. . Darfurians predominantly comprise of Fur, Zaghawa, Massalit and other African tribes.

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Crisis

The present crisis in Darfurstarted with conflict between settled farmers and nomadic cattle-grazers in early 2002. The farmers of Darfurreap a good harvest and heavily depend on agriculture. At the same time, the nomadic tribes who depend on their livestock cannot allow their cattle to die. Since rainfall is scant due to climate change and water shortage is acute all over the Darfurregion which is bigger than the size of Franceconflict becomes the way to survive. The nomadic Arab-origin tribes, who are in the forefront of controversy, better known as Janjaweed, fought the local farmers over the right to secure a safe passage for grazing of their cattle-herds. Traditionally, there used to be tracks meant for grazing. Since there is not enough rain, most of those grazing lands are wasteland. Often, cattle-herds stray into the farmland leading to conflict.Now the situation has assumed an ethnic dimension. When it became an issue, some Sudanese political factions also jumped into the fray and tried fish in troubled water. It fast turned out to be a law and order problem and later became a security issue. The Sudanese military which was tired of fighting with South Sudanese militias had failed to counter the atrocities committed by Janjaweed. That led to local anger and suspicion that the Sudanese Government is supporting the Janjaweed. Most armed nomads are disorganised and extortionists. But the Sudanese Government had strongly accused Chadof supporting these outlawed groups to foment trouble in SudanChadand Sudanhave a long border and political conflict and had have fought a war.

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History tells that the underdevelopment and mariginalisation of Darfurbegan during Anglo-Egyptian rule between 1917 to 1956. The British administration had restricted the movement of Darfurians who are ferocious fighters by creating “closed district administrative zones” to control movement of people or goods through inner line permit. The British had mobilised the resources for the development of “K” triangle – KhartoumKosti and Kassala for larger farms at the cost of DarfurThat had a significant impact on Darfurs overall development at that time.

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Even after the independence of SudanKhartoumpaid scant attention to Darfurs development as it was occupied with fighting with southern rebels and Darfurwas considered remote. Today, all three Darfurprovinces have no direct road link with KhartoumOnly in July this year, President Omer Al-Bashir announced building Western Salvation Highway to link Niyala with OmdurmanThis year, newly appointed South Darfur Governor Ali Mahmoud also reiterated his responsibility to focus on development. Similarly, North Darfur Governor Osman Mohamed Yousif Kibir also admitted scant development and told STRATEGIC AFFAIRS that lack of road link between Darfurand Khartoumhas aggravated the alienation further. “So development is out priority. But peace is a precondition for that to happen,” he said. Darfurbadly needs basic infrastructure education, road, power, health centers and water. Since sanctions are in place against Sudangetting foreign investment is a difficult proposition. Also, international aid is badly affected. Sudannow solely depends on oil revenue of some four billion US dollar a year and agro-products. Sudanese officials remarked that the UN is all set to spend over $2.5 billion for stationing troops to monitor the truce agreement. If it can spend half of the amount then the problem in Darfurcan be tackled permanently. But this will not happen due to variety of reasons.

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Idea

Moreover, nobody has any idea about the exact number of people killed or displaced since the conflict in Darfurbegan. One estimate says that 300,000 people have been killed and some two million are displaced. But Sudanese officials said that the number of killed could be little over 20,000 and some 200,000 are IDPs. The conflict had spread all over Darfurat the initial stage since it had ethnic and socio-economic dimension. Ever since Darfurdrew international attention, mounting pressure forced all parties to sit together, the government and rebels. The Mini Minnawi faction of Sudan Liberation Army and Sudanese Government signed African Union brokered and US mediated Darfur Peace Agreement in Abujaon May 5,

2006. That was with mainly Zaghawa tribe. That angered other groups. Quite a few rebels groups are now operating outside DPA. It is important that all should come on board to make DPA a lasting solution. The SLAfur) faction led by Abdel Wahid al-Nur who is currently shuttling between Franceand Germanyhas rejected the DPA and threatened to resort to violence if Khartoumdoes not accept his conditions. However, non signatories are now demanding more political representation for Darfurians.

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DPA is a watered-down text of Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed between the Sudan Government and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). DPA has opened space for accommodation of political aspirations of Darfurians. At least, a beginning has been made. But after the DPA, Darfurrebels have split on ethnic lines. Now there are reports of internecine feuds among various tribes, including Janjaweed, under mutual suspicion. He Sudan Government has to pay more attention to the fact that it will be difficult

to handle so many groups in future for a final settlement. There are also reports that some of Sudans beleaguered neighbours with other vested interests are now clandestinely aiding these rebels to split further and reject DPA. In that case, it will be difficult for Khartoumto wriggle out of the situation easily.

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DPA salient features:

a) Disarmament of the janjaweed by October 2006

b) Incorporation of 5,000 rebel fighters into the Sudanarmy and police

c) Compensation for the IDPs through a one off payment of US$ 300 mn

d) Annual transfers of US$200 million.

e) A Transitional Darfur Regional Authority (TDRA) to govern the region till a referendum in 2010 determines whether Darfurshould be a unitary region or remain divided into three provinces

f) A new post of Senior Assistant to the President and Chairperson of TDRA for the rebels’ nominee

 

Within few days of the DPA, there were massive anti-AU protests since Drafurians were unhappy over the pact. Since it has involved mainly Zaghawa tribes, others have developed a sense of isolation. Zaghawa’s are well to do farmers and belong to upper echelons of Darfurian society, although being a minority. Since violence spread across in May last year, the UNSC passed 1679 resolution for speedy deployment of UN troops under charter-7 – citing a threat to international peace and security.

Now UNSG Ban Ki-Moon, who visited Khartoumrecently, is pressing for early deployment of troops known as hybrid forces. The deployment could take place not before end of 2008 due to several logistical problems. Though it can generate a lot of job creation and boom local economy, hardly it can bring a lasting solution to Darfurcrisis, except some sense of confidence. Simultaneously, the UN should also focus on developmental projects to improve socio-economic conditions of Darfurians who have suffered for a long.

 

Any attempt to split Darfurout of Sudancould prove to be dangerous game. Even some had given a similar opinion about splitting Iraqinto three nations. If Darfurgoes, then whole of Africawill pass through a geo-strategic upheaval as there are 110 tribal movements seeking sub-regional identities. It will flare up like wildfire and affect the whole continent. Ultimately, it might turn out to be a playground of unwanted elements, including Al Qaeda, which is in search of a sanctuary in

Africa.