Lebanon: More Complicated than Ever
Saudi Arabia -and to some extent Syria- are backing the 14th of March, as they know that with the painstaking endeavors of 2008 (that ensued post the 2006 war with Israel, which plunged the country into turmoil), joint efforts between regional states and domestic groups—which led to the Doha Agreement and the formation of the National Unity government—the status quo needs to be preserved and Saad Hariri should continue his term with full power.
Hezbollah, on the other hand, sees nothing positive in the current circumstances, as it wants the situation to develop in a way that results in an acknowledgement of its right to keep its weapons, a nightmare scenario for the 14th of March and its central force, Saad Hariri’s al-Mustaqbal (Future) Movement. Oddly, Egypt is on the side of anti-status quo forces, perhaps a consequence of the rift between Husni Mubarak and Bashar al-Assad (Al-Ahram recently ran a harsh piece against Bashar Al-Assad, asking him to dissociate himself from Iran and the Resistance).
Developments in recent weeks -particularly the snowball effect of Rafik Hariri’s Tribunal and the controversy at a gynecology clinic in Hezbollah-dominated Dahieh in South Beirut- have escalated tensions and widened the gap. The gynecology incident foiled the efforts made by Saudi Arabia in recent days to forge a meeting between Saad Hariri and Sayyed Hassan Nasrullah to discuss the issues of contention.
As days pass, the situation in Beirut is moving further into complication. Regional states with a foothold in Lebanon that are against undermining of the status quo -Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia- are stretching their efforts to keep things calm. Though, at times, it seems that even regional patrons can do little to contain the opposing forces inside this small Middle Eastern country.
Mohammad Irani is Iran’s former ambassador to Beirut.