Erdogan’s Big Test

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the leader of the Justice and Development Party, and his partisans have passed months of tension and chaos. 2013 was filled with tension and challenges inside the country and in foreign policy for the Justice and Development Party. During the first months of the past year, the fourth congress of the Justice and Development Party was held under special circumstances and with international dimensions. In the fourth congress, personalities such as Mohammad Morsi and even Masoud Barzani, the President of Iraq’s Kurdistan region, were present. Erdogan intended to show that the Justice and Development Party intends to remain in power for at least another ten years. But the trend of developments in Turkey in the social and political arenas and in Turkey’s surroundings was such that questions are raised about the path of the activities of the Justice and Development Party and its future and outlook.

Perhaps the incident that took place at Gezi Park during the last summer could be considered as the starting point for challenges against the Justice and Development Party; this means that this limited incident which was related to environmental issues in this park in Istanbul was rapidly transformed into political dissatisfaction at a national level and displayed a hidden dissatisfaction in Turkey’s social body and rival parties like the Republican People’s Party and the Nationalist Movement were able to take advantage. Meanwhile, last year was an active year for a part of Turkish society, i.e. the Alawites, because the extent of their demands grew. They held several congresses and these incidents indicated that the government of Turkey could no longer be inconsiderate with regards to the religious demands and rituals of the Alawites in Turkey. They are an important player and this will be manifested further in the social and political arenas in Turkey in the future.

Beside these issues, another major challenge emerged for the Justice and Development Party. The financial corruption in Halk Bank, which is one of Turkey’s accredited banks, wherein some senior members of this party and even the children of some ministers were involved, dealt a huge blow to the Justice and Development Party. Therefore, Erdogan made great efforts to repair the cabinet and take a firm stance against this financial corruption which was unprecedented during the last decade.

One of the main characteristics of the activities of this party has always been its economic activities which have completely changed the Turkish economy. In comparison with the former governments and parties regarding financial corruption, the Justice and Development Party has been less involved. But the issues related to this bank raised the question of whether the Justice and Development Party has been involved in secret economic activities or not. It was under such conditions that Erdogan defined these incidents as a scenario which was designed by the shadow government. What he meant by the shadow government was the supporters of the Fethullah Gulen Movement which plays an active role in the security, economic, social and educational sectors. Fethullah Gulen and the Justice and Development Party have had similar ideologies during the past decade but now their point of dispute has been revealed and friction was created at the social and political level for this party. This issue caused Erdogan to limit the scope of the activities of this group and that is why the parliament of Turkey recently adopted a bill which limited the activities of the non-profit schools which were affiliated with this movement. Therefore, the Justice and Development Party was faced with social and political challenges. Under such conditions, the issue of municipal elections and, later on, the presidential election are of high importance. This is a test for the Justice and Development Party to see whether it can gain enough votes in these areas. Although the municipal elections are local, it could be a big test for this party and for the future presidential election. Of course, Erdogan’s candidacy for the presidency is not yet clear.

In the area of foreign policy, last year was not a calm year for Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party. The trend of developments in Syria did not advance towards the desired outcome which Erdogan had hoped for. This means that Turkey was not able to pursue its objective in changing the political system in Syria. The trend of developments in Syria increased criticisms inside Syria, particularly by the rival parties, against Erdogan. On the other hand, in the Middle East, the developments in Egypt were serious challenges for Turkey’s Middle East diplomacy because Turkey and Erdogan pursued the issue of exemplifying the political example of Egypt and greatly supported Mohammad Morsi and even considered the political changes in this country as a coup. The analysts considered this matter a turn in Turkey’s Middle East policies because it did not reach the desired result the Justice and Development Party had wanted. This issue caused this party to repair its relations with its neighbors including Iran and Iraq and the relations between Iran and Turkey improved during the last year.

Turkey is moving on the path of repairing its relations with Iran and part of this is related to Turkey’s political situation and diplomacy in the Middle East. These developments have placed Turkey on a path to review its foreign policy in the Middle East, especially with regard to its neighbors.

As a general conclusion, it can be said that although the Justice and Development Party has been faced with serious challenges in the social, political and diplomatic scenes, it is not yet on the verge of branching out and it seems that this party can gain a considerable number of seats in these elections. But whether Erdogan can use his charisma to improve the damaged image of the Justice and Development Party inside the country is an important issue and remains to be seen. In another outlook, the trend of developments in Turkey last year could not be described as a deadlock in the activities of the Justice and Development Party.

This party is still the most important and most influential and powerful party in Turkey. But it must also be said that a social movement has been created inside Turkey. This means that the scope of demands of the two most important minorities in Turkey, the Kurds and the Alawis, has increased. The demands of these two groups in Turkey could lead to social and political movements in this country. Erdogan’s repeated visits to the Kurdish regions, his speeches in these regions and his relations with the Kurdish areas of Iraq could be analyzed within this framework and he intends to gain the votes of these regions. This point must not be forgotten either that there have been changes in Turkey’s policies with regard to the Kurds and Erdogan’s symbolic gesture last year in negotiating with the PKK was a step on the path of national reconciliation. Although the continuation of these negotiations is faced with difficulties both from the side of the government and the PKK, this taboo was broken and there have been changes at the decision-making levels in Turkey with regards to the Kurds. It seems that the future election in Turkey will be very important for the Justice and Development Party and Erdogan will continue his attempts so that this party can remain in power in the next parliamentary election, even though the scope of dissatisfaction in the political and social areas against this party has increased and there are groups which demand a change in the existing situation in Turkey.