Obama Put to the Test in 1389 AH

There are two methods by which to analyze developments. First, is counting the events and developments, which will provide us with a detailed list of problems and events in the domestic and foreign policies of the US, and the second consists of a conceptual, analytical and macro way of understanding the events and developments. With the second approach, we can look at the US under the administration of Barack Obama in 1389 AH as an unfinished project- a project that Obama isn't doing that well at conducting so far.

To better understand the point made above, we will first have a personal evaluation of Obama's conduct, then we will discuss American society and its domestic developments, and finally we will consider the position of the US in the international arena in 1389AH. Of course, since Obama is in the middle of his first term and we have had enough time to evaluate him; in all these cases we can assess Obama’s performance as medium, average and in some cases, lower than average. 

An assessment of Obama's personality and performance

During the last year, Obama distanced himself further from the ideas he had proposed in his presidential campaign. The last of which was his decision to prosecute Guantanamo detainees, which was in total contrast with his initial rhetoric but could be considered a symbol of his performance in other areas as well. Overall, Obama's performance has indicated that he is not personally capable of overcoming opposition by his colleagues and the bureaucratic system; he is a slow decision maker, and is not innovative or brilliant in those decisions either. In other words, Obama's personality was not dominant over bureaucracies in 1389AH, and in reality it was the bureaucracy that dominated him.  

Various other cases and issues prove this proposition. The most recent, which can prove this fact and is perhaps the most important of these cases- one that forced Obama to make his most important decision in the past two years of his presidency- was the developments and popular revolutions in the Arab countries of the Middle East. In all these developments, he reacted with inconsistency, surprise, and a change in his decision-making.  

In the Egyptian crisis, Obama's administration changed its position three times in one day and in other cases, it wasn't able to show its decisiveness, either. Analysts and the public had had higher expectations of Obama in office. Considering the campaign slogans and promises that he made in winning election, he has shown to have an average performance in crises. 

We have to add that it is not only Obama's personality that was influential in these cases, but his views influenced his performance as well. Obama's attitude last year showed that he is a complete liberal in domestic policies. Including in issues such as same sex marriage, toward which he showed a stronger than average American liberal tendency. However, he was not able to resolve gaps existing in American society as he claimed he would like to have, like Lincoln.  

We should remember that during his electoral campaign and his first year in office he emphasized following in Lincoln's steps. Abraham Lincoln is an historical American legend, one who was able to keep the US united under one flag with his personal skills at a time when the country was structurally falling apart. However, it seems like Obama not only failed to fill these gaps, but created more gaps within American society. 

The American Society 

We have to assess Obama's performance in 1390 as a continuation of his performance in 1389. Overall, his presidency is linked with two major changes in the US: the first of which occurred right after he took office, and that was the great economic crisis. To solve the crisis he tried to apply administrative and economic changes by injecting somewhere around 800 million dollars into the US economy, through which he highlighted the role of the state in the economy and crisis management. But we have to bear in mind that giving more power to the state in US culture and its administrative structure is considered a huge change. A change that still hasn't been able to cure the side effects it brought with it.  

After this change, he quickly pursued a second change- the change he wanted to make in the health insurance system, which increased the role of the state in health care as well. These two changes are still taking their political toll in the country, and have increased racial and political gaps in American society, which have manifested themselves in the Tea Party movement. The historical and important Democratic defeat in the Senate and the House midterm elections, and also the loss of some state governors, are certainly wounds created through these changes which have made the American people not only sensitive, but in some cases also fearful of Obama's policies. As a result, some ballots, which were traditionally cast for Democratic candidates, were now headed to the Republican side. 

In 1389, one of the most important instances of these social gaps revealed itself, as a result of which Obama will face many problems. To solve these problems he has no choice but to reach some form of compromise with Republicans.    

Hegemonic Challenges  

In 1389, following the revealing of Obama's conceptual framework, his administration took action in regards to international management and applying US hegemony based on the two concepts of power and cooperation. In other words, it tried to strengthen the US’ military basis while emphasizing cooperation and multilateralism.  

Last April, Obama held the "Nuclear Security Summit" in Washington, with more than 40 representatives from different countries; he also attended many other multi lateral meetings. His attendance in meetings such as the G20, the APEC summit (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), as well as the NATO summit in November, the EU and NATO summit, and the NATO and Russia summit, are all indicators of Obama's multilateral approach. The participation of Hillary Clinton in the UN Human Rights Council can also be analyzed in the same framework.  

Nevertheless, US policy based on power and multilateral cooperation could not realize a complete US hegemony and the US is faced with major challenges in applying its hegemony. Challenges like dealing with China, trade negotiations, economic relations- particularly the value of China's currency-in addition to Middle East issues, Iran's nuclear dossier and Middle East peace talks. In all these cases, the US faced major challenges. While Obama's multilateral cooperation approach could help repair the US' tarnished image, it could not help the US realize its aims of leading the world. Despite its partial success in the case of Iraq, the US still faces serious challenges in Afghanistan. Furthermore Pakistan and western Asia are challenging issues for the foreign policy of the United States. Overall, Obama's achievements in foreign policy in the past two years would get an average mark. 

From what has been mentioned we can conclude that in 1389 Obama declined stunningly, domestically and internationally, compared to 1388. It is very unlikely that he will achieve an outstanding approval rating in the next two years. Nevertheless, in politics two years is a long time, and we cannot judge outcomes with certainty. But we can say without doubt that considering 1389, if he's chosen to serve for a second term he will face numerous challenges. However, great opportunities are also awaiting him.