Verbal sparring will spare stability, experts say

DailyStar-- The heated exchange between caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Hezbollah over Iran’s policies in Lebanon and the Gulf region is not likely to spin out of control or threaten the country’s stability, political analysts said Friday.

Hariri and Hezbollah engaged in virulent rhetoric shortly after Hariri accused Iran Thursday of “flagrant interference” in the internal affairs of Lebanon and Arab Gulf states.

The verbal exchanges shattered Hezbollah’s silence on Hariri’s fierce campaign against the party’s arsenal. Since the collapse of his government in January, Hariri and his March 14 allies have launched scathing attacks on Hezbollah, accusing it of using its weapons to achieve political goals in Lebanon. They demand that Hezbollah puts its weapons under state control.

Addressing a Lebanese-Saudi economic forum, Hariri vowed Thursday not to let Lebanon become an Iranian protectorate, saying Tehran’s policy in the region was no longer acceptable. Hariri’s speech drew a swift response from Hezbollah which accused Hariri of serving the U.S. policy in the region and seeking to turn Lebanon into “an American-Israeli protectorate.”

“Raising the bar in political speech and raising tension between the parties do not necessarily translate into a full scale war. We might witness limited skirmishes in mixed areas, but these skirmishes can be contained by the army,” Carol Maalouf, a political analyst, told The Daily Star.

Maalouf, also a lecturer in political science and political history of Lebanon at Notre Dame University, said that neither the rival leaders of Hezbollah and Hariri’s Future Movement, nor their supporters, have the will to fight one another.

“I don’t think the silent majority have the will to go to armed struggle with any opposing party,” she said. “Despite the tension and fear from both sides, there are no indications of a full-scale war.”

Talal Atrissi, an expert on Iran and Middle East affairs, agreed with Maalouf, ruling out any street sectarian clashes between supporters of Hariri and Hezbollah.

“I don’t think the tension between Hariri and Hezbollah will erupt into street violence, especially [since] we are in a phase of Cabinet formation. Neither Hariri, nor Hezbollah, which is participating in the Cabinet, has an interest in street violence ahead of the Cabinet formation,” Atrissi told The Daily Star.

“Besides, there is no local, regional or international decision for a military flare-up in Lebanon because Lebanon is not a priority for America and Gulf states. Priority is now for Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt,” Atrissi said.

Atrissi, a lecturer at the Lebanese University, said Hariri’s tough stance on Iran was “a translation of the tension between Iran and the Gulf states.” Continued…