Ivory Coast and the Disposal of another Dictator
Minutes past 8PM, suddenly two helicopters from the French forces and the UN appeared in the sky and claimed to have knocked out one of Gbagbo's strongholds and his heavy arms. Strangely, the flash and the stunning noise created by explosions gave the French helicopters more grandeur in their operation. No one is yet aware of the source and origin of these fireworks. It seems like the French have quickly simulated the Security Council resolution regarding a no-fly zone over Libya in the Ivory Coast as well. The French attacks only destroyed one major infrastructure in the city, and that was the radio and television antenna.
Tuesday April 5th, 10:30 AM: Gbagbo forces unilaterally declare ceasefire; forces loyal to Ouattara also immediately stop attacking. (By the way, forces loyal to Ouattara were first called rebels until their coalition with Gbagbo three years ago, when they changed their name and now are known as the Republic forces) Hours later it was announced that the dictator, his family and some relatives had taken refuge in the basement bunker and that Alsid Jeje, Gbagbo's self-appointed government's Foreign Minister, was negotiating with the French Ambassador. In an interview after this meeting, Jeje refused to announce Gbagbo's resignation and evaded revealing the provisions of his negotiations with the French Ambassador.
The military invasion of French and UN forces cast some doubt in terms of its legality, and Russia announced that it will investigate the legitimacy of this action. The French Foreign Minister, Alain Juppe, along with the country's Defense Minister, attended a parliamentary session on Tuesday afternoon, explained their conduct, and answered questions from delegates. Juppe said that that Monday the UN Secretary General, in a letter to Nicolas Sarkozy, had requested that the Licorne French forces based in Abidjan join the UN Blue Helmet forces in destroying the heavy arms belonging to Gbagbo forces. Licorne had immediately acted upon the request of the Secretary General, and according to the 1975 Security Council resolution and in support of the Blue Helmet forces, had started targeting and destroying Gbagbo's heavy weapons. Alain Juppe's tone and attitude in the French Parliament resembled that of Napoleon back from a victorious battle.
Juppe said that the UN Secretary General had asked France to get a written confirmation from Gbagbo indicating his resignation from power. The French Foreign Minister said that the legitimate government of Ouattara and the UN forces are qualified to decide the way they deal with Gbagbo. While broadcasting this report, France 24 quoting the UN, reported that Gbagbo had sought refuge with UN forces, demanding protection for him and his family. But some other news agencies denied this new report. Although the course of events could face many changes in the next few hours, everything was ready for Ouattara's transfer from the Gulf Hotel in Abidjan to the presidential palace located in the Plateau district in the next few hours, or in two or three days at the latest.
Well, these were the outer layers of the events in the Ivory Coast. An actual and correct interpretation of the events requires more time and attention to some points and possibilities:
First of all, forces loyal to Ouattara controlled 60 % of the country's 330 thousand square kilometer soil for 9 years. Only on the third day of their attack did they occupy Yamoussoukro, the political capital; and on the fifth day they occupied Abidjan, the economic capital of the Ivory Coast with a population of 4 million. On Sunday, only three locations in the city, including the palace, the presidential residence, and the radio and television stations were under Gbagbo's control. Forces loyal to Ouattara began their final assault Monday night and hours later, they were at Gbagbo's residence. Now the question is, was there any need for the intervention of the French and UN forces in such situation, and with this background?
Juppe claimed that French forces, which increased in number from 800 to 1700, only acted on Resolution 1975 to protect civilians and French citizens, and to destroy Gbagbo's heavy arms. However, hours later, we witnessed that Gbagbo's foreign minister showed up at the French embassy, France became the main actor in negotiations, and Juppe heroically appeared on TV and Gbagbo still remains in the hands of the French. It seems like the French are planning to fully exploit this event through their political game until Ouattara gets to the presidential palace.
The conclusion we may draw from this and the response we can offer to the above question is that the French are trying to take advantage of the whole issue. Sarkozy tried to repair his reputation inside France, and also tried to play a leadership role beside the US in NATO. He also tried to secure the illegitimate interests of France in the vast and strategic country of Ivory Coast, and show that it is able to resolve a crisis unlike in its poor conduct in the past 10 or 20 years in Africa.
It s interesting that in the last minute Obama announced that the US supports the French and UN attacks and that Gbagbo (who might have been living the last moments of his life) had to resign. However, all the evidence shows that the Republic forces (forces loyal to Ouattara) required no help to finish their work. French forces are now involved in Afghanistan, Libya, and the Ivory Coast; but Juppe said on Channel 5 of French TV that this does not mean that France is changing its military doctrine, but its conduct is aimed at defending civilians and promoting peace.
Secondly, the French must have targeted the Radio and TV stations because the rebels and vigilantes loyal to Gbagbo used the TV to incite the people. In a situation when everything is in favor of Ouattara and no one had even left their homes and shelters in days, what good could stimulating these people do? In fact, this writer believes that Ouattara does not need mass media to communicate with the people of the Ivory Coast.
As a result we see that it is the French media who have taken over the news coming out of the Ivory Coast, therefore casting doubt on their purpose.
Thirdly, evidence shows that France was trying to present itself as the main factor of success by getting a written commitment of resignation from Gbagbo; therefore implying that Ouattara owes his government to them. In addition, it is most likely that the French will not hand Gbagbo over to Uattara forces, and will take him out of the country. It seems unlikely that Gbagbo will be tried as a war criminal because the French do not want to agitate his supporters any further.
Fourth, there are already signs that war crime tribunals and the UN (and certainly France) will investigate the crimes committed in the past 4 months, after the presidential election. According to leaked news, it seems that some of Ouattara’s forces are accused of murder committed in the past few days. The point raised by this case could be that they are trying to inhibit Outtara’s future behavior and policies by making these accusations.
Fifth, the Ivory Coast crisis had many lessons for Africa and the world. It is better to discuss the political, economic, legal, social, ethnic, regional, and international aspects of this complex case in detail on some other occasion.
Sixth, the most important and vital question right now is the policy and strategy that Ouattara will chose to govern by in the future. The list of the difficulties ahead for his administration, for the development and dominance of his country, is so long that it would frighten any outstanding leader or manager. However, the statement read by his Defense Minister showed that his first priority is providing full security to his citizens and to prevent the possible spread of insecurity and the looting of people’s property by thugs and rioters. Hopefully the Republic forces will not use violence to maintain peace, because experience shows that this method is turned into the major element of insecurity itself.
Seventh, a number of experts believe that Ouattara is too loyal to France and the West, and therefore during his term the Ivory Coast’s dependency on them will increase. In our past two pieces on this website, we have responded to this ambiguity. But as explained in the last two pieces, the only forces that helped realize Ouattara’s government through their fierce attacks were the rebels based in the northern parts of the country, who were mostly Muslims. ECOMOG, the Economic Community of West African States, was in shock despite all its talks. The motive behind the UN and Lincorn forces attacks was also explained above. So, while we cannot deny the support of the West and France for Ouattara, we have to acknowledge that Ouattara owes the Republic troops in particular and the international community in general. In addition, reliance on France was at its peak during Gbagbo’s administration, so it can’t further exceed this limit.
Ninth, regarding Iran’s interests, we have to say that our interest still lies in our humanitarian and altruistic support of the nation of the Ivory Coast. The most generous behavior in the current situation is promoting policies that encourage restraint from revenge, which fortunately Ouattara’s government has announced as policy. It seems that support and encouragement of a public amnesty, and an administration consisting of all forces, including the People’s party which Gbagbo founded, turning the wheel of the economy and Iran’s cooperation in the reconstruction and development of the Ivory Coast, are appropriate elements that Iran should announce, and commit to.