How Iran Benefits from US Attack against Daesh
Obama has ordered air strikes against Daesh positions. Is it speculated that this attack would include other regions of Iraq as well?
Right now we are witnessing a dual behavior from the US. When Daesh occupied the Ninawa and Saladin provinces and the two big cities of Tikrit and Mosul, the US did not do anything. This was while the government of Iraq had asked the US for help and even asked it to deliver the planes that were purchased before, but the US did not deliver them. The Iraqi government sought unity against the Takfiris at the international level and in political dimensions but the US did not support it. These cases show that the US is not sensitive with regard to the government of Iraq against Daesh. But now that the Daesh forces have attacked Iraq’s Kurdistan province and have advanced in this region and have even captured Mosul Dam and even Makhmoor and is positioned in 20-30 kilometers of Erbil, the US has now delivered arms to the Peshmerga forces and entered a military operation against Daesh due to the threat that was posed against Kurdistan. Meanwhile, the US has taken political measures at the international level and in the Security Council and dispatched humanitarian aids to the refugees in this area. The US’ behavior does not show any change, it rather indicates its commitments to the Kurds and not the Shiites. This behavior is based on a network of US interests.
What will the consequences of the US’ air strikes against Iraq be and what changes will they make in the scene?
The US’ attack against Daesh has practically entered this country into the front against Daesh. Now whether it continues or not, a contradiction has been created between Daesh and the US and this will definitely be to the disadvantage of Daesh and will somehow impact the US’ behavior in the future with regard to the central government of Iraq.
Considering the impotence of Iraq’s army in its fight against Daesh, what effects will this incident have on the military forces?
I do not believe that the Iraqi army is impotent. Now that the voluntary forces have entered the operations, the situation of the army has changed. The cleansing advances which were made in the surroundings and north of Baghdad show the motivation of the voluntary forces and they have been able to define their fight against Daesh.
Considering the warnings given by Mr. Muqtada Sadr stressing that there is a threat by Daesh against Baghdad, will the US air strikes make this threat more serious or will they neutralize this threat?
I assume that Daesh is only a player which could be present in a completely Sunni atmosphere. Therefore, Daesh’s complete capacity is in the Sunni Arab provinces and Daesh’s attack against Baghdad cannot be implemented. They are not able to launch this attack while hundreds of thousands of volunteers are being trained and their presence would change the equations, even though the use of voluntary forces was late and Mr. Maleki had ignored this capacity.
Will this attack intensify or resolve the crisis?
I believe that this attack will not intensify the crisis, but that it will rather lead towards the resolution of the crisis. The US was caught in a difficult situation and the non-decision of the US was one of the most important crises in Iraq. The US decided to enter this equation in fighting against Daesh. This will turn the conditions to the disadvantage of Daeash and make the equation transparent.
Could this attack strengthen Iran’s presence in Iraq?
I believe yes. Daesh’s presence in Iraq strengthened Iran’s presence and influence because Iran is a regional power. The government of Iraq asked all countries for help but none of them except Iran helped Iraq, thus, Iran’s influence in Iraq has been strengthened.
What effects will this attack have on the Arab countries including Saudi Arabia?
Saudi Arabia used Daesh to confront Iran’s influence. It used Daesh to increase contradictions against Iran in the region but this issue will be a threat for Saudi Arabia itself. The reason is that the most important ideological solidarity of Daesh is in Saudi Arabia. The market of Daesh ideology is in Saudi Arabia. That is why the possibility of the spread of this ideology in Saudi Arabia and the establishment of bases by Daesh in this country is high. Therefore, the issue of Daesh is a challenging issue for Saudi Arabia. On one hand, this issue is to the benefit of Saudi Arabia and on the other hand it is a threat to this country.
Considering the US condition based on the point that it will continue its strikes only if the government of national unity is formed, what effects will this attack have on the selection of the prime minister in Iraq?
There are two processes in Iraq; one a military process and the other a political process. The selection of the prime minister is also part of the political operation. Reaching an agreement on the issue of the prime minister is defined in a package. The selection of the Parliament speaker, president and the prime minister is a package. There will be no result without the agreement of the three main groups of Shiites, Arabs and Kurds. That is why there is a relation between the selection of the prime minister and the political-security process in Iraq.