The Future of Tehran-Yerevan Relation
A commentary by Hasan Beheshtipour
Armenia won’t sacrifice Iran to normalize its relations with Turkey.
Armenian President Serge Sarkisian entered Iran today to pay a two-day official visit and discuss economic contracts, particularly the agreement on constructing the Iran-Armenia railway. Sarkisian’s visit takes place while Armenia and Turkey are moving towards reconciliation and establishing relations. Hasan Beheshtipour has commented on how a new era of Armenia-Turkey relations will influence their relations with Iran and Azerbaijan.
The majority in Turkey today support normalization of ties between Ankara and Yerevan due to economic and political merits. With a likely reconciliation, Turkey has further space for a geopolitical game against Iran and Russia in Caucasus.
The dispute between Armenia and Turkey is actually over. Now United States is urging Turkey to finalize the Armenian genocide issue so that it can pass the Nabucco Pipeline through Armenia, the shorter route.
The Republic of Azerbaijan is the country who gets shortchanged and protests here. Azerbaijan wants Turkey not to establish tie with Armenia unless the Nagorno-Karabakh problem is solved. Baseless. Azerbaijan has the same demand from Iran but Iran keeps on ignoring the request since it has strategic relations with Armenia. Azerbaijan can only protest and nothing more, since maintaining warm times with Turkey fulfills its interests.
Normalization and its impact on Tehran-Yerevan relations
The impact of Ankara-Yerevan normalization on Iran’s situation can be viewed from two aspects. From a pessimistic perspective, Armenia will lower the level of its relations with Iran. The optimistic view maintains that Iran and Armenia enjoy strategic, long-term relations and need each other. To access Caucasus’ market Iran needs Armenia’s overland routes. And Armenians know well that even in case of normalizing ties with Turkey, they still need Iran. This is not a one-way street. It’s a mutual relation and the two countries have close historical, cultural, political and security connections. Armenia-Turkey ties aren’t against Iran’s interests.
The point here is how Turkey is going to enter geopolitical games in Caucasus? Is it going to sideline Iran? That is what Abdullah Gul and Recep Tayyip Erdogan had brought up in their visit to Moscow. The "Three plus Two" security format includes three Transcaucasian states, i.e. Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia plus Russia and Turkey. Iran will definitely lose this game, but I don’t think Armenia tends to enter this equation. I believe that "Three plus Three" is beneficial for both Iran and Turkey. However, I don’t know why Turkey doesn’t favor this plan.
At any rate, Sarkisian’s visit to Iran is in line with mutual cooperation between countries which need each other %100. Zangezur in southern Armenia is vital for Iran’s access to Caucasus. On the other hand, for Armenia Iran is the only route for contact with other countries and access to Persian Gulf. Armenia has territorial disputes with Azerbaijan on east and Turkey on west. North is not safe, in addition to minor problems with Georgia. Hence, Iran is critical for Armenia and the country won’t normalize its relations with Turkey at the expense of losing a close ally like Iran.
The Nabucco pipeline and Armenia-Turkey reconciliation
Regardless of the future of Ankara-Yerevan relations, United States is going to sideline Iran by implementing the Nabucco pipeline. However, there are some prerequisites: security issues in Caucasus, Armenia-Turkey dispute, and Armenia-Azerbaijan clash. Theoretically, if Armenia and Turkey open their borders the pipeline project will progress quickly. However, in practice there are security, political and economic obstacles against the project.
Armenian President Serge Sarkisian entered Iran today to pay a two-day official visit and discuss economic contracts, particularly the agreement on constructing the Iran-Armenia railway. Sarkisian’s visit takes place while Armenia and Turkey are moving towards reconciliation and establishing relations. Hasan Beheshtipour has commented on how a new era of Armenia-Turkey relations will influence their relations with Iran and Azerbaijan.
The majority in Turkey today support normalization of ties between Ankara and Yerevan due to economic and political merits. With a likely reconciliation, Turkey has further space for a geopolitical game against Iran and Russia in Caucasus.
The dispute between Armenia and Turkey is actually over. Now United States is urging Turkey to finalize the Armenian genocide issue so that it can pass the Nabucco Pipeline through Armenia, the shorter route.
The Republic of Azerbaijan is the country who gets shortchanged and protests here. Azerbaijan wants Turkey not to establish tie with Armenia unless the Nagorno-Karabakh problem is solved. Baseless. Azerbaijan has the same demand from Iran but Iran keeps on ignoring the request since it has strategic relations with Armenia. Azerbaijan can only protest and nothing more, since maintaining warm times with Turkey fulfills its interests.
Normalization and its impact on Tehran-Yerevan relations
The impact of Ankara-Yerevan normalization on Iran’s situation can be viewed from two aspects. From a pessimistic perspective, Armenia will lower the level of its relations with Iran. The optimistic view maintains that Iran and Armenia enjoy strategic, long-term relations and need each other. To access Caucasus’ market Iran needs Armenia’s overland routes. And Armenians know well that even in case of normalizing ties with Turkey, they still need Iran. This is not a one-way street. It’s a mutual relation and the two countries have close historical, cultural, political and security connections. Armenia-Turkey ties aren’t against Iran’s interests.
The point here is how Turkey is going to enter geopolitical games in Caucasus? Is it going to sideline Iran? That is what Abdullah Gul and Recep Tayyip Erdogan had brought up in their visit to Moscow. The "Three plus Two" security format includes three Transcaucasian states, i.e. Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia plus Russia and Turkey. Iran will definitely lose this game, but I don’t think Armenia tends to enter this equation. I believe that "Three plus Three" is beneficial for both Iran and Turkey. However, I don’t know why Turkey doesn’t favor this plan.
At any rate, Sarkisian’s visit to Iran is in line with mutual cooperation between countries which need each other %100. Zangezur in southern Armenia is vital for Iran’s access to Caucasus. On the other hand, for Armenia Iran is the only route for contact with other countries and access to Persian Gulf. Armenia has territorial disputes with Azerbaijan on east and Turkey on west. North is not safe, in addition to minor problems with Georgia. Hence, Iran is critical for Armenia and the country won’t normalize its relations with Turkey at the expense of losing a close ally like Iran.
The Nabucco pipeline and Armenia-Turkey reconciliation
Regardless of the future of Ankara-Yerevan relations, United States is going to sideline Iran by implementing the Nabucco pipeline. However, there are some prerequisites: security issues in Caucasus, Armenia-Turkey dispute, and Armenia-Azerbaijan clash. Theoretically, if Armenia and Turkey open their borders the pipeline project will progress quickly. However, in practice there are security, political and economic obstacles against the project.