Rapprochement of Turkey and Armenia and the Future of Relations Azerbaijan- Turkey Relations
The future of Armenia-Turkey relations seems bright. Development in bilateral relations of these two countries is an outcome of Turkey’s turn towards East. The objectives set by former administrations do not fulfill Turkey’s present interests and they have to change their approach.
As a sequence to this change, Turkey’s negative attitude towards Russia and Iran in Central Asia and Caucasus may change. Turkey is trying to approach Iran in trade and energy relations. Turkey’s turn towards east has been welcomed by both Iran and Russia. It is predictable that Turkey’s pursuit of its interests in Central Asia and Caucasus faces no opposition from these two countries.
The problem of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh dispute with its cultural and geographical origins may also be resolved since all the engage parties have more important concerns in larger scales.
The Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is of a geopolitical nature. Azerbaijan’s frail regime needs to be supported by its neighbors, particularly Iran and Russia. Meanwhile, the role of United States as a reliable ally is fading since the superpower has graver concerns to address. Partnership with Israel is not also as simple as before after the war in Gaza. Even Turkey is moving towards a more neutral role in this dispute due to its demographics and national interests.
Turkey’s reconciliation with Armenia is less economic than symbolic. Armenia possesses a small market with imports from Iran and Russia, and goods trafficked illegally into the country from Turkey and China. Turkey’s outreach for Armenia is aimed to reduce foreign relations’ problems and make headway towards major objectives. I believe that Turkey will make further breakthroughs and may even part away from Israel and the United States.
Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is wary about Armenia-Turkey relations. They have been struggling with Armenia for long. Compared with Turkey, they endure less pressure due to their oil resources and small population; hence, they’ll adhere to their ideological, patriotic beliefs.
Emergence of another Shiite-Sunni schism, this time between Iran and Turkey, is unlikely since the two neighbors are enjoying friendly relations and as long as these ties remain close Azerbaijan can not take a tough stance against any of these countries. And with regional states moving closer to each other (Iran, Turkey and Russia as an example) it would become more difficult for Azerbaijan to break away from any of them.
The Nagorno-Karabakh dispute may also move into a hibernation period. Azerbaijanis may protest Turkey’s reconciliation with Armenia but this will happen and that’s the time for them to see if they should keep up warm times with Turkey or not. I believe they will. Linguistic and religious affinities between these two countries, Turkey’s powerful presence in Central Asia and pipelines which are going to pass this country stop Azerbaijan from cutting ties. And meanwhile it seems all the parties engaged with Nagorno-Karabakh dispute are weary of the struggles.